主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (5): 119-127.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2018.05.015

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

东北区域数值模式产品在天气预报业务中的检验

赛瀚1, 李燕1, 刘硕2, 全美兰3, 孙悦程4   

  1. 1. 大连市气象台, 辽宁 大连 116001;
    2. 沈阳中心气象台, 辽宁 沈阳 110000;
    3. 抚顺市气象局, 辽宁 抚顺 113006;
    4. 大连市气象信息中心, 辽宁 大连 116001
  • 收稿日期:2017-05-15 修回日期:2017-07-24 出版日期:2018-10-31 发布日期:2018-10-31
  • 作者简介:赛瀚,女,1987年生,工程师,主要从事天气预报研究,E-mail:saihan1987@hotmail.com。
  • 基金资助:
    大连市气象局课题“WRF精细化预报产品本地化应用研究”（DLQX201501）和大连市气象局精细化格点预报专家团队共同资助。

The verification of northeast regional numerical model products in operational weather forecast services

SAI Han1, LI Yan1, LIU Shuo2, QUAN Mei-lan3, SUN Yue-cheng4   

  1. 1. Dalian Meteorological Observatory, Dalian 116001, China;
    2. Shenyang Central Meteorological Observatory, Shenyang 110000, China;
    3. Fushun Meteorological Service, Fushun 113006, China;
    4. Dalian Meteorological Information Center, Dalian 116001, China
  • Received:2017-05-15 Revised:2017-07-24 Online:2018-10-31 Published:2018-10-31

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摘要： 利用2015年大连地区7个主要气象站的地面气温、降水、风向风速和相对湿度观测资料，针对东北区域中尺度数值模式（Weather Research and Forecast，WRF）产品中常规天气要素进行检验分析，了解掌握WRF模式对不同天气要素的预报能力，以期为天气预报业务中WRF模式产品的订正提供参考。结果表明：WRF模式产品的气温预报准确率整体上08时起报的比20时起报的稍好，最低气温预报效果比最高气温稍好，且WRF模式对升温和降温的趋势预报较好，具有一定参考性。WRF模式产品的降水预报准确率相对较高；WRF模式对风向的预报准确率可以达到50%左右，而风速的预报准确率可以达到60%—70%；大雾天气的预报，可以相应参考WRF模式的相对湿度。

关键词: WRF模式, 检验, 气象要素, 预报

Abstract: Based on the ground temperature,precipitation,wind direction and speed,relative humidity data from seven main weather stations in Dalian area in 2015,the conventional weather elements predicted with the Northeast Regional Mesoscale Numerical Model (WRF) were analyzed for assessing the forecasting ability of WRF Model.This research will provide a technical reference for the revision of the model products in weather forecasting service.The results show that the forecast accuracy of temperature at 08:00 by WRF is higher than that at 20:00.The forecast value of minimum temperature is more accurate than that of the maximum temperature.WRF demonstrates a better performance in predicting the trend of warming and cooling.The forecast accuracy of precipitation by WRF is relatively high compared with other meteorological variables.The accuracy of the wind direction predicted by WRF is about 50% while that of wind speed can be 60% to 70%.The relative humidity predicted by WRF can be applied in the fog forecast.

Key words: WRF mesoscale model, Verification, Weather elements, Forecast

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