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    东北区域数值模式产品在天气预报业务中的检验

    The verification of northeast regional numerical model products in operational weather forecast services

    • 摘要: 利用2015年大连地区7个主要气象站的地面气温、降水、风向风速和相对湿度观测资料,针对东北区域中尺度数值模式(Weather Research and Forecast,WRF)产品中常规天气要素进行检验分析,了解掌握WRF模式对不同天气要素的预报能力,以期为天气预报业务中WRF模式产品的订正提供参考。结果表明:WRF模式产品的气温预报准确率整体上08时起报的比20时起报的稍好,最低气温预报效果比最高气温稍好,且WRF模式对升温和降温的趋势预报较好,具有一定参考性。WRF模式产品的降水预报准确率相对较高;WRF模式对风向的预报准确率可以达到50%左右,而风速的预报准确率可以达到60%—70%;大雾天气的预报,可以相应参考WRF模式的相对湿度。

       

      Abstract: Based on the ground temperature,precipitation,wind direction and speed,relative humidity data from seven main weather stations in Dalian area in 2015,the conventional weather elements predicted with the Northeast Regional Mesoscale Numerical Model (WRF) were analyzed for assessing the forecasting ability of WRF Model.This research will provide a technical reference for the revision of the model products in weather forecasting service.The results show that the forecast accuracy of temperature at 08:00 by WRF is higher than that at 20:00.The forecast value of minimum temperature is more accurate than that of the maximum temperature.WRF demonstrates a better performance in predicting the trend of warming and cooling.The forecast accuracy of precipitation by WRF is relatively high compared with other meteorological variables.The accuracy of the wind direction predicted by WRF is about 50% while that of wind speed can be 60% to 70%.The relative humidity predicted by WRF can be applied in the fog forecast.

       

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